An Emirati’s Thoughts

In contrast to the usual mountains of fuckwittery being spouted on the UAE blogs regarding the current Israel-Lebanon conflict, Emirati at An Emirati’s Thoughts has come up with a sensible suggestion of what Israel’s response should have been to the kidnapping of its soldiers by Hezbollah.  There have been very few sensible suggestions of what Israel’s reaction should have been, most advocating that Israel either does nothing or responds with maximum force depending on who you are supporting, and Emirati’s offering – although possibly unworkable in practice – at least addresses the issue calmly and sensibly.  Under the circumstances this is commendable, and I reproduce his proposal in full below.

1.  Protract this conflict to the South of Lebanon. Strike at Infrastructure in the South of Lebanon, all roads that lead to the Northern Parts of Lebanon. Use a ground offensive to push up till the 2000 pre-handover borders. Dont strike at all of Lebanon, because that will not allow you to later play off the Lebanese Government and people against the Hizb. Make Southern Lebanon Uninhabitable forcing the Civilians there to Relocate to other Areas in Lebanon, thus reducing the Amount of Collateral Damage.

2.  Carry out a Series of Special Forces Raids against Hizbollah Targets, Kidnapping and Interrogating them for Information on Positions of Hezbollah forces and Launchers. With Sufficient SO raids, you could capture and parade Hizbollah Members on Television. You could demoralize Hezbollah and Pro Hezbollah Lebanese into accepting an Inevitability. Guerilla Attacks are deeply Demoralizing and allow you to pull off operations with Minimum Loss of Civilian Life.

3.  Jam All Satellite Communications into Lebanon. No Satellite Television, No Cellular Phones. Neutralize any regional stations which broadcast pro Hezbollah Material by taking out their Antennas. In the meantime, Broadcast your own Materal Showing the IDF attacking Hezb Units.

4.  Leave Beirut and its airport Alone. With something to lose, the Lebanese Government will be more inclined to negotiate and cooperate. Restrict Travel into and From Lebanon. The Israeli Airforce will escort any plane bound to Beirut Airport. Any planes bound to Beirut must Stop at Cairo International, Amman International, or an Airport in Cyprus for an Inspection by UN Observers. Get Lebanon caught up in a non lethal beauraucracy in order to be able to put pressure on it without killing people.

5.  Swiftly Involve the United Nations and the rest of the World in this mess to put pressure on the Lebanese Government. Ask the US to provide Economic Incentives to Syria for non Intervention and Possible Cooperation. Promise to Withdraw from Entire South Lebanon Including Sheba Farms if Hezbollah is Disbanded and Replaced by Regular Lebanese Military Units.

6.  If Hezbollah Proves Undisbandable by politics, have Lebanese Government Request American Military Assistance in Neutralizing Hizbollah Threat or threaten to chase Hezbollah all the Way to the Beqaa Valley. The US will beef up Lebanese Military Units with Advisors, Training and Equipment. Lebanon is not Another Afghanistan. A concerted effort by US and Lebanese forces could wipe out the Hezb in a matter of weeks.

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4 Responses to An Emirati’s Thoughts

  1. George Hargraves says:

    Not convincing: out of date and irrelevant. In 2004, the (in)famous UN Resolution 1559 was supposed to lead to Hezballah being disbanded and replaced by the Lebanese army. For the best part of two years, UNIFIL troops have done little except watch Iran and Syria arm Hezballah.

    The present conflict is effectively a proxy war between Israel and Iran, which has taken over as Hezballah’s main sponsors, reducing Syria to the support cast.

    The tragic the events in Lebanon are only tactical concerns within the bigger strategic picture. The acute problem concerning Israel and the west (and other many Arab governments) is not Lebanon or Syria, or even Hezballah, but Iran. Preventing Iran emerging from this conflict as the regional terrorist “super-power” is an urgent strategic priority.

  2. Steven Wood says:

    The notion that the lebanese people are going to be played against each other by israel as it rips their country apart and murders civilians is also highly unilkely I would say. Even delusional. The one thing that unites many (although not all) arabs seems to be their objection to the Jewish state and it’s sponsor the US.

    This sort of thing watched from afar is infuriating I have to say. The other day we had Nitanyahu telling journalists in the UK that this was the equivalent of the 1945 blitz for Israel and what they were doing was teh same as us in Dresden..uhm, yeah but we didn’t remove a million germans and create a country in the name of our god where they had lived to start of with it, I mean come of it. Sort out palestine, and lets have a brave israeli leader who’s willing to take huge steps to sort this out giving acknowedgment at least of the scar caused by the creation of Israel. Sharon had the right idea – as far as me and many of my friends can tell the settlers who refuse to leave are frightening fanatical zealots every bit as much as the idiots on the other side.

    Anyway, after all that – there must be a humanitarian ceasefire as the russians are proposing. Followed by a well equipped UN force deployed in the south of Lebanon to prevent further Hizbollah rocket attacks. All this was obvious weeks ago and what has been allowed to happen since is an outrage.

  3. John Hartley says:

    The proposal is at least thoughtful and shows that the writer was willing to seee that Hizb are the boil that needs to be lanced. The aim is also subtle, although achiving subtlties in a conflict is usually doomed to failure. But At least a starting point.

    Steven Wood – your suggestion that the UN would do anything useful would be hilarious if not so pathetic. The UN has time and time again shown itslef to be weak and unable to project force in an offensive capability. There has been a useless UN force often turning ablind eye to Hizb actions for years. Isnt one definition of madness doing the same thing and expecting a different result each time ?

  4. Steven Wood says:

    The UN is only pathetic because of unilateralism, and the knee-jerk dismissal of world wide opinion on any criticism of Israel by the US. Democracy is the loser time after time.

    This is not an existential war for israel although Olmert has painted it this way, Hizbollah does not have the declared intention to wipe Israel off the map (even if Iran’s president has said it should be), they kidnapped soldiers in the hope of a prisoner exchange, it’s happened in the past after all.

    However due to the continued black and white politcs of the region, there was no willingness to engage at any level with anyone in the organisation except to “lance it”. Since it’s foundation, as a group who took up arms against Israel a then occoupying power, it has been increasingly demonized and pushed towards Iran and extrimism. All arab movements who bear arms against Israel are seen in the west as fundamentalists and extremisit who cannot be negotiated with. If this isn’t true (and I admint it is in some cases) it’s what they get made into by US/Israeli policy.

    The middle east is as far from peace as it’s ever been. None of these proposals would come anywhere near to achevieving lasting peace.

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