Without knowing the state of the pitch at Edgbaston, my heart sank when Michael Clarke won the toss and elected to bat.  Australia have one method and one method only of winning: bat first, put on a decent total, and let their bowlers do the rest.  What I didn’t know, but what the English team apparently did, is that batting first on that wicket was a poor decision.  Whether Clarke made a genuine error or has shown himself to lack imagination is only one of the questions being asked of him right now.

I watched the first session’s play in the Aussie Bar in Patong’s Bangla Road, and it quickly became apparent that the Australians had erred badly in choosing to bat first.  Anderson and the revitalised Finn demolished the Australian top and middle order, leaving Chris Rogers – not for the first time in his career – looking like the only genuine test batsman in the side.  With the dangerous Smith removed, saving the innings was left to the hopelessly out of form Clarke and a middle order that has struggled throughout the series.  After Rogers’ gallant 52, Adam Voges was the next top scorer with 16.

With Australia bowled out for 136 it fell to England to put on a huge first innings score of 400+ to take the game away from Australia.  This they utterly failed to do, and with two snorting deliveries from Mitchell Johnson early on Day 2 leaving England 142/5 it required a partnership of 87 between Broad and Ali to eventually give England a first innings lead of 145.  Although it proved to be enough, England may consider themselves fortunate not to have handed the game back to Australia at that point.  Cook might think himself unlucky to have been caught by Voges’ belly, but Lyth failed once again and Root got himself out at 63 when he ought to have gone a lot further.  That we can consider 63 a mediocre innings by Root speaks volumes about his form of late, but the real pleasant surprise for me came from Bell’s 53.  True, he got out in his usual manner of switching his brain off leaving the rest of the innings in doubt, but the confidence and fluidity of his batting following his make-or-break promotion to No. 3 was crucial to England and demonstrated that his class remains intact.  This will be very much welcomed by the England team and their fans.

As the innings went on, it became clear that a lead of 80+ would be useful as the pitch and conditions were swinging the ball all over the place and such a lead would cancel out any score made by a half-decent Australian batsman.  When England finished with a lead of 145, this looked to be very handy indeed.  And so it proved, with Australia collapsing in a heap under the attack of Finn, Broad, and Anderson with only Warner looking comfortable in an innings of 77 which turned out to be meaningless.  Only when Neville arrived at the crease, determined that Australia wouldn’t lose by an innings within 2 days, did Australia show some fine resistance to grind out a lead of 121 with Starc in particular scoring an impressive 58.

Any dreams of Johnson tearing through the England line-up to save the match lay were quickly laid to rest when he and the rest of the Australian attack – particularly Starc, but even the hitherto reliable Hazlewood – let their line and length drift and England cashed in.  Despite early success against Cook with a disappointing 7 and Lyth who shouldn’t even have bothered padding up, Australia once again found themselves being carted about by the rejuvenated Bell who was clearly brimming with confidence from his first innings knock, ably supported by the grinning Joe Root.  Even had Clarke’s dropped catch of Bell stuck in his paw, defending a lead of 121 against England’s current batting line-up on a 3rd day pitch was a big ask.

The highlights of the match for England must be the return to form of Bell and Finn, with the lowlights being the injury to James Anderson and the continued failure of Lyth as an opener.  Bairstow didn’t do much on his recall to the team, but falling to a ripper of a delivery and lacking a second innings knock he’s not somebody to worry about yet.  Buttler once again disappointed with the bat, but hopefully he’ll improve as he gets more experience.  Ali batting at No. 8 again proved himself to be a real thorn in the side of the opposition, and Broad will be pleased he scored some vital runs following a couple of years of not knowing which way up to hold the bat.

With the way this series has gone so far it would be foolish to try to predict what will happen at Trent Bridge (a comprehensive innings victory for Oz cannot be ruled out), but it’s fair to say Australia have some massive problems to overcome.  Top of these is the poor performance of their newly-drafted middle-order batsmen – Voges and Marsh – who have been completely exposed by the repeated failure of Michael Clarke.  Warner is having a torrid time against the moving ball, and if either one of Rogers or Smith falls early, Clarke inevitably follows leaving the new boys facing the likes of Anderson and Broad with a ball that is still shiny.  It comes as no surprise that Australia’s only success in this series came when Rogers and Smith scored all the runs and nobody else was required to contribute.  This might come off once or twice a series, but relying on two batsmen to do the work of the entire team cannot end well, particularly when one of them is a grandfather who intends to retire in a few weeks’ time.  England know that if they can remove either Rogers or Smith, defeat becomes an awful lot less likely.

Australia will also be disappointed by their bowlers, particularly Starc.  They always knew Johnson was an impact bowler who would start spraying it about if he doesn’t take quick wickets, but following his success in the WC Australia would have hoped Starc could wreak the same destruction with the red ball.  Unfortunately, he seems to be more of a Mitchell Johnson than a Brett Lee and without the control the pressure piled up on Hazlewood who also started to lose the accuracy for which he has already become famous in his short test career thus far.  The Australian bowling attack is still good and should not be underestimated, but with their batting looking so fragile they will be under enormous pressure at Trent Bridge against an England who probably cannot help but feel buoyant.

Australia will be mighty glad that Anderson won’t be playing (he has a good record at Trent Bridge), but if Wood regains his fitness, Finn bowls like he did at Edgbaston, and the conditions remain English then his absence might not make much difference.  Despite Australia only needing to level the series to retain the urn, they are a game down in the series with only two to go.  If England win the next match, it’s all over.  If it’s a draw, it’s still an open series.  Australia have an enormous task ahead of them, and you’d fancy the English from here.

I wonder if Lehmann still thinks Cardiff was a minor hiccup?