Okay, the Ashes are upon us again with the first test kicking off tomorrow. \u00a0As is customary around these parts, I will weigh in with my uninformed, narrow views as and when I think I have something to add.<\/p>\n
Many Australian pundits (including former players<\/a>) are predicting a 5-0 stroll as per the last series in Australia. \u00a0This is monumentally stupid if for no other reason than the English weather can normally be relied upon to force a draw somewhere. \u00a0What I have yet to figure out is whether this is the usual Australian media and public gobbing-off, or whether this is what the actual team members believe. \u00a0If the latter, then Australia are in deep trouble already: cricket is a funny game, and has a habit of knocking\u00a0some reality into those who demonstrate undue hubris. \u00a0Look at the expectations of the English team in the last Ashes, for example. \u00a0Supreme confidence shattered permanently after a single morning at the Gabba. \u00a0Test cricket is good like that. \u00a0I was watching some Ashes re-runs the other night on Sky, and one thing caught my attention: even the great Australian team of the early 2000s used to spend sessions being pummeled, with Shane Warne bowling pies, full-tosses, and wides and Glenn McGrath pitching short and wide from the other end and being dispatched to the boundary with ease. \u00a0But in other moments of the game, they pulled it all back. \u00a0In other words, even the best teams need to work pretty hard for a win, not just turn up on the back of a reputation.<\/p>\n So let’s assume the Australian team is a bit more sober than its fans and is going to put some effort in. \u00a0What can we expect?<\/p>\n First England. \u00a0Facing Tim Southee and Trent Boult at their very best with the red ball last month will have done the English batsmen no harm whatsoever, even if some – Ballance and Bell – didn’t cope with it too well. \u00a0In terms of preparation for facing potentially devastating spells of fast, swing bowling this was probably as good as it gets. \u00a0For reasons I’ll explain in a minute, this area is where the Ashes will be lost or won for England. \u00a0Our batting line-up is packed with talent right down the order; the only questions are whether they are good enough to handle the Australian bowling and whether Ballance and Bell will regain their previous form. \u00a0You would back Bell to score some runs at some point in this series, even if he isn’t as consistent as he was in the previous home Ashes when he single-handedly kept in England in the contest. \u00a0He has too much talent and experience to keep getting ducks, although the selectors might lose patience if he’s not produced the goods and England are 2-0 down going into Trent Bridge. \u00a0Ballance is more of a worry: if he cannot reliably bat at No. 3 he will find himself sent back to County Cricket in pretty short order and a replacement drafted in or Root pushed up the order. \u00a0On Ballance (see what I did there?), he is probably England’s most worrying link in the batting chain. \u00a0I am confident Cook will score runs, as will Root, and as will everyone else down the order at some point. \u00a0Stokes, Buttler, Ali can all swing a bat. \u00a0But these guys will not win matches on their own, and it is crucial for England that these explosive players arrive at the crease\u00a0when there are\u00a0at least 250-300 on the board. \u00a0And for that, we need Cook, Lyth, Ballance, Root or Bell to score at least a century with two of the others making substantial contributions.<\/p>\n You would back them to do that – if they can force the Australian bowlers into fifth and sixth spells. \u00a0And that’s a big “if”. \u00a0Australia have had very little practice at the long form of the game of late: fresh from a World Cup and IPL, they cruised through two pathetically truncated test matches against the West Indies before coming to England where they have faced county teams for their warm-up matches. \u00a0As New Zealand showed when they arrived on English shores, it takes a test or two to adjust to the Duke ball and the longer spells. \u00a0The Australian bowlers will surely adapt, but it is vital that England keep them out long enough to force them into longer spells and late-session bowling against set batsmen. \u00a0England have tried to do this in the past by blocking for eternity, waiting out\u00a0maiden after maiden, but this proved to be disastrous in the last Ashes. \u00a0England simply have to score runs off the Australian quicks, or the series will be over before we know it. \u00a0It is a daunting task, but not an impossible one. \u00a0Ryan Harris will not be playing, Mitchell Johnson has struggled a little in the warm-up games and doesn’t have a great record in England, and the hype being placed on Hazelwood as the new McGrath after only a handful of games might prove to be his downfall if he starts getting clubbed around a bit. \u00a0All eyes are on Mitchell Starc, who is capable of destroying an entire batting line-up in a single spell, but there will be periods where he hasn’t quite found his line and length and England need to take advantage of these and force Clarke into a more defensive field. \u00a0If England can somehow tire the Aussie bowlers, and put on 300+ runs each innings, they’ll be in with a real chance.<\/p>\n Why? Because the Australian batting looks vulnerable. \u00a0In the previous Ashes, the Australian 5th batsman was exposed to the new ball in almost every innings, the top order having collapsed. \u00a0Each time they relied upon the tail wagging and the bowlers cleaning out England’s batsmen cheaply, which they duly did. \u00a0But this is a risky strategy, especially away from home. \u00a0Warner doesn’t cope well with sideways movement, Rogers is dangerous but is pushing on a bit and can normally be relied upon to get himself out cheaply every other innings, and the rest – especially Watson and Marsh – are inconsistent. \u00a0Clarke is a class act but has been injured lately, so he perhaps shouldn’t be relied upon to shore up a collapsing innings. \u00a0Haddin doesn’t do so well in England as Australia and, like Voges, is also pushing on. \u00a0The real dangerman is Smith, who is young, fit, and extremely talented (as well as being extremely likeable). \u00a0In previous series, Australia’s bowlers have been so effective that their\u00a0batsmen have only needed 250-300 or so each innings to secure a match-winning total. \u00a0If England can somehow get even a modest 300+ total, especially if batting first, it will be interesting to see how Australia’s batsmen cope. \u00a0They are simply not used to facing down massive scoreboard pressure, and this is where they are most vulnerable.<\/p>\n That said, there are a few other worrying signs for England. \u00a0First and foremost among these is our lack of an international-standard spinner. \u00a0Much as though I like Moeen Ali, and also Rashid, neither are (yet) match-winning spinners of the sort that would trouble Australia. \u00a0Lyon isn’t particularly good, other than the fact that he has amassed more wickets than any other Australian off-spinner and has had England’s number for quite some time. \u00a0In other words, he’s plenty good enough. \u00a0He’ll not be the difference between the two sides, but he’ll certainly contribute to it if England’s spinners cannot get into their game. \u00a0England’s seam bowling looks good, but if past performances are anything to go by we are far too reliant on Jimmy Anderson. \u00a0Broad is brilliant about once every three matches, which is just not good enough. \u00a0If he fails to back up Jimmy, we’ll lose. \u00a0Mark Wood is an exciting prospect, but is unproven and his pace might quickly drop off as the sessions, matches, and series grind on. \u00a0But if he picks up some big wickets early on, he might end up having a storming series. \u00a0Next, England really need to once and for all figure out how to deal with a tail. \u00a0Time and again English fans have watched their bowlers reduce a side to 190-7 using good-length bowling targeting the top of off stump and then seen the last three batsmen plunder another 180 runs of short-pitched rubbish. \u00a0If Trevor Bayliss can manage one thing in his first few weeks in the job, it ought to be teaching the English bowlers how to remove a tail, or at least stop them from scoring like it’s a T20. \u00a0By contrast, the Australians usually skittle the England tail for about 15 runs. \u00a0Finally, England need to get a grip of their catching. \u00a0They are excellent in the field in terms of balls chased down and getting it back into the keeper, but they have put down a lot of slip catches in their recent tests against New Zealand and the West Indies. \u00a0This might not be a problem against the likes of Watson and Warner who can be relied upon to give you another chance in the next over, but against Clarke or Smith this will be fatal. \u00a0Bayliss needs to address this pronto.<\/p>\n Regarding Bayliss, I expect we will see his influence more in Tests 3-5 rather than the first two or three. \u00a0He will need time to figure out the team in the same way Lehmann did when he took over Australia 4 years ago. \u00a0Hopefully he will at least have instilled a new mentality in the England team, similar to that adopted by\u00a0the ODI side with impressive results. \u00a0England have some positives: Root, Wood, Stokes, Buttler should all be worth watching. \u00a0Of Cook’s captaincy, the less said the better.<\/p>\n So what do I think? \u00a0Australian’s better bowling, captaincy, and and overall experience giving them the series 3-1, with 1 game drawn and England winning the 4th or 5th test. \u00a0That’s the realistic view. \u00a0The optimistic view is England winning unexpectedly in Cardiff due to Australia’s bowlers not being able to find their rhythm, and going on to win the series 2-1. \u00a0Whatever happens, I am sure England will at least win sessions<\/em> this series: we didn’t even manage that last time.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Okay, the Ashes are upon us again with the first test kicking off tomorrow. \u00a0As is customary around these parts, I will weigh in with my uninformed, narrow views as and when I think I have something to add. 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