Europe and Iran

Amid all the wailings over Trump binning Obama’s Iran nuclear deal, this part made me laugh the most:

Mr Khamenei told the crowd that Iranian officials “want to continue the nuclear deal” with Britain, France and Germany, but added: “I do not trust these countries either.”

He continued: “If you could get guarantees from them in such a way that they can be trusted, no problem then you can continue.

“If you cannot get such a strong guarantee from them, and I see it very unlikely that you can, we could not move and continue like this anymore.”

The Iranians are not stupid and know full well the Europeans’ sole interest in Iran is as a lucrative market for their leading businesses. When Macron says he hopes to “keep working” on the nuclear deal, what he means is he wants to somehow keep the place open for French companies to go in and make hay, having strangled them with regulations on their home turf. They’re not in the least bit interested in whether or not Iran develops nuclear weapons or spreads terrorism around the Middle East, but they pretended they were in order to get Obama to lift the sanctions. Now they’re pretending the US withdrawal from the deal doesn’t matter, which is dishonest in the extreme: this was always a US deal which other countries simply piggy-backed on for business reasons. The Iranians know this, and they also know that if the US imposes sanctions the Europeans will fold like a cheap suit as soon as the US Department of Justice or Treasury Department starts growling.

The Iranians probably have a grudging respect for Trump’s outspoken manner and stubbornness, even if they don’t like him. I suspect they hold Obama and the various grovelling European governments in utter contempt.


14 thoughts on “Europe and Iran

  1. Britain, France, Germany and the EU will knuckle under and do whatever we tell them to do. Of course, that means another brick falls out of the NATO wall, but whatever.

    The bigger issue is that the long-awaited Israeli-Iranian war appears to have started in Syria, with missile exchanges currently underway. Will Israel invade Syria to eliminate Iran, Hizballah and Assad? Who knows? Trump has green-lighted and will support whatever they do.

    Interesting times.

  2. The bigger issue is that the long-awaited Israeli-Iranian war appears to have started in Syria

    I saw that, and wondered why Iran would be so stupid to take on Israel in a conventional war in its own backyard.

  3. President Trump’s latest hand grenade is, like many of his initiatives, aimed at more than one target. First, queering the pitch for French/German/EU businesses expecting to make easy money in Iran. Second, making it a bit more expensive for Iran to strut its stuff in foreign parts. Third, forcing Russia to maintain an expensive, high profile presence in Syria. Fourth, signalling to Kim Jong Un that POTUS means business when he demands nuclear disarmament. Fifth, signalling to everyone that the US is a friend worth having (unlike Obama who specialised in signalling that the US was an enemy you need not fear).

  4. Iran etc had Obamas number within a very short time and consequently made hay……it’s raining now!

  5. Plausible deniability and all that, Iran can claim rockets fired by any number of actors and Israel can then bomb Syrian (Iranian) targets without a full blown war, both sides (un)happy!

  6. Britain is such a close and reliable ally of the United States that we have to consider the possibility that the British response has been co-ordinated with Washington. It’s just possible that there’s a “good cop / bad cop” act going on, in which Trump makes threats while the British keep open the possibility of further negotiations. If so, the goal would probably be to pressure the Iranians into re-negotiating Obama’s nuclear deal on terms that are much more favourable to American interests and which do actually put serious restrictions on the Iranian nuclear weapons program.

  7. I do get a kick out of how everyone calls this a “deal”, an “agreement”, even (in one newspaper) a “treaty.”

    Obama knew that bringing this abortion of a bargain to the Senate for ratification would have been a disaster. It would have been shot down immediately, with no chance of passage.

    So Obama “signed” it, in an act that has zero legal force under US law.

    And the Iranians never signed a thing. There is nothing about this agreement that binds Iran.

    A paranoid person might see the work of Iran-born Valerie Jarrett in this mess.

  8. “I saw that, and wondered why Iran would be so stupid to take on Israel in a conventional war in its own backyard.”

    Because surely Allah will ensure a swift victory over the Zionist Entity. Like all the other times.

    Bang goes the summer holiday.

  9. Nothing screams “We are a sane, trustworthy, mature country to do business with” like burning another country’s flag in your parliament.

  10. Having worked with a French company, I am aware of their somewhat flexible approach to “local business practices” and their willingness to do what is necessary to secure a contract. I also note that the French supplied Dassault Mirage fighters and Exocet missiles to the Argentinians, including spares while the Falklands war was on …

    Rule No. 1 – never trust the French when they will always act in their own short sighted interests.

    Secondly, with Obama flying literally tons of currency into Iran following the “deal” (Iran reported that they had received over $100 Billion in “sanctions relief”, plus $400 million flown in on 17th January 2016 as part of a $1.7 Billion ransom payment Obama made to release four American hostages), this undoubtedly propped up the regime which could afford to buy in food and luxury goods to prevent unrest at home. Rioting and internal regime change was a real possibility. This still left the bulk of the cash to purchase more equipment, expertise and components to continue to enrich uranium and construct bombs and delivery vehicles. You can “persuade” a lot of people and governments with that amount of loose change slopping around, particularly in American dollars..

    Trump has overturned that apple cart and now the back peddling from various quarters has started with France trying to salvage their contracts in Iran and keep the cash flowing.

    Of course, when Iran undoubtedly does achieve manufacture of viable nuclear weapons, having a dose of the instant canned sunshine explode over Israel, Paris and other European capitals will be a bit late, methinks, to do anything about it.

  11. For those of us that know body language Trumps recent handling of Maricon in the US was not a bromance as many have stated it was pure throwing him around out of disrespect for the little poodle.

    Personally speaking with Trump and his current performance on the Iran deal maybe his move was somehow made to pacify the situation in the Mid-East.

  12. “Rule No. 1 – never trust the French when they will always act in their own short sighted interests.”

    I have also found this through my professional experience in dealing with the French management in construction contracting. I really don’t know why they come down here because they never do well and their French management just cannot handle the business scene down here. It’s as if their Grand Ecoles educated elitist management consider that they are on a posting to a backward French colony.

    Politically as well France is an irrelevance, for mine they were once a proud and respectable nation which ceased the moment they dropped their proud nationalism and Gaullist successors to take on this current pro-European pro-US central liberal leaders. Europe is run from Berlin, Maricon is being pulled along by Trump who also happened to crash his climate dreams. If they weren’t a permanent member of the UNSC you wouldn’t hear about them on the world stage.

    They are also failing economically with their private wealth not keeping up with their peers. Right now, France has about the same total private wealth as Australia which has a third of its population. Australia will overtake France shortly in terms of private wealth and in ten years it will be at the same level of the UK and Germany and France will just about drop of the top ten private wealth level by nations.

    Then there is the totally unacceptable and questionable marriage of Maricon to a child rapist, she may be cover for his girly nature but that didn’t stop Trump dragging him about like a little fag. To think that he has been compared to Napoleon is a complete fucking joke, surely there are some proud Frenchmen left that cringe when they see him on the world stage.

  13. Well, f+ckheads, the alternative to the agreement is war…which will spread to Lebanon and Syria( and who knows where), will last year’s, creat more Jihadists and refuggess and send the price of oil through the roof which will tank the world’s economy…and all because Trump is Nuttyahoo’s bitch…way to go USA!

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